Evening Update!

The current results from the Brown Bear are:

President Bush 50.77%

Senator Kerry 47.43%

This is a not quite significant change in President Bush's direction.

The Brown Bear puts the electoral vote count at:

President Bush 259

Senator Kerry 207

Tossup 72

After processing more than 40 new state polls, The Brown Bear saw one major move yesterday.

Iowa Close Bush to Tossup (B)

The Brown Bear also saw seven minor moves yesterday.

Delaware Likely Kerry to Close Kerry

Washington Likely Kerry to Close Kerry

Maine Likely Kerry to Close Kerry

Illinois Likely Kerry to Solid Kerry

New Jersey Close Kerry to Likely Kerry

Missouri Close Bush to Likely Bush

Nevada Likely Bush to Close Bush


Including Tossups, President Bush now leads Senator Kerry 296 to 242.

Bush Loses Iowa!

The Brown Bear noticed a new state poll (from the Des Moines Register) showing John Kerry leading Iowa by 3% points and redesignates the state Tossup (B).

The Brown Bear & The National Margin (Part Two)

In this post the Brown Bear explains how he calculates the Presidential Job Performance portion of the National Margin.

As an example, let's consider the polls results released by Time & Newsweek a week ago. For Time, the results were 53% approve, 44% disapprove; for Newsweek, the results were 46% approve, 47% disapprove. The Brown Bear first calculates the undecided vote by adding the approve and disapprove numbers for each poll and subtracting the result from 100%. For Time, the undecided is 100% - (53% + 44%) = 3%; for Newsweek, 100% - (46% + 47%) = 7%. The Brown Bear then calculates the Adjusted Job Performance Rating for each poll by adding one-third of the undecided result to the approve result. For Time, the Adjusted Job Performance Rating is 53% + (3% ÷ 3) = 54%; For Newsweek, it is 46%+ (7% ÷ 3) = 48.33%.

The Brown Bear then calculates the age and weight of each poll in the manner described in The Brown Bear & The National Margin (Part One). For Time the age and weight of its poll were 50 and 141.323; For Newsweek, the age and weight of its poll were 51.5 and 163.953. (Remember that the older the poll the smaller the age. In our example the Time poll is older.) The Brown Bear then multiplies each poll's Adjusted Job Performance Rating by its weight to obtain a Weighted Rating. For Time, the weighted rating is 54% x 141.323 = 76.315; for Newsweek, it is 48.33% x 163.953 = 79.244. The Brown Bear then adds all the weighted ratings for the polls he is considering. For Time & Newsweek, this sum is 76.315 + 79.244 = 155.559. The Brown Bear then divides this sum by the sum of the poll weights (for Time & Newsweek, this sum is 141.323 + 163.956 = 305.277) to obtain the Presidential Job Performance Rating. For Time & Newsweek, this result is 50.96% (155.559 ÷ 305.277 = .5096).

The Brown Bear then combines the Presidential Job Performance Rating with the National Poll Margin which was described in Part One to obtain the National Margin. First, the Brown Bear takes the National Poll Margin and adds to it the 3^rd Party Percentage (currently at 1.8%). For the Time & Newsweek polls, the National Poll Margin was 3.39%; 1.8% + 3.39% = 5.19%. The Brown Bear then divides this sum in half. For the Time & Newsweek polls, 5.19% ÷ 2 = 2.595%. The Brown Bear then takes the Presidential Job Performance Rating and subtracts 50% from it. For our example, 50.96% - 50% = 0.96%. The Brown Bear then adds this result to the previous result to obtain the National Margin. For the Time & Newsweek Polls, 2.595% + 0.96% = 3.55%.

The Brown Bear calculates the percentage of the vote for each candidate that he posts in his daily updates in the following manner. He takes the 3^rd Party Percentage and subtracts it from 100%, obtaining the Two-Party Percentage; 100% - 1.8% = 98.2%. To obtain the leader's percentage he adds to the Two-Party Percentage the national margin and divides the resultant sum in half. In our example using Time & Newsweek polls, this result is (98.2% + 3.55%) ÷ 2 = 50.87%. To obtain the percentage for the candidate trailing the race, the Brown Bear subracts the national margin from the Two-Party Percentage and divides the result in half. For the Time & Newsweek polls this is (98.2% - 3.55%) ÷ 2 = 47.33%. Therefore, using The Brown Bear's method on just the Time & Newsweek polls from last week, the result would be George Bush 50.87%, John Kerry 47.33%.

Afternoon Update!

The current results from the Brown Bear are:

President Bush 50.67%

Senator Kerry 47.53%

This is a not quite significant change in President Bush's direction.

The Brown Bear puts the electoral vote count at:

President Bush 266

Senator Kerry 207

Tossup 65

After processing more than a dozen new state polls, The Brown Bear saw one major move yesterday.

Pennsylvania Close Kerry to Tossup (K)

The Brown Bear saw no minor moves yesterday.

Including Tossups, President Bush still leads Senator Kerry 296 to 242.

Kerry Loses Pennsylvania . . . Again . . .

Thanks to a new state poll, showing the race tied and two new national polls showing Bush ahead by 5% points, the Brown Bear redesignates Pennsylvania, Tossup (K).

Morning Update!

The current results from the Brown Bear are:

President Bush 50.53%

Senator Kerry 47.67%

This is an insignificant change in President Bush's direction.

The Brown Bear puts the electoral vote count at:

President Bush 266

Senator Kerry 228

Tossup 44

After processing more than 15 new state polls, one new national poll and updating four national tracking polls, The Brown Bear saw no moves yesterday, major or minor. This is the first day since the Brown Bear began tracking polls ten days ago with no moves among the states.

Including Tossups, President Bush still leads Senator Kerry 296 to 242.

The Brown Bear & The National Margin (Part One)

In this post the Brown Bear explains how he calculates the Bush vs. Kerry portion of the National Margin. In Part Two the Brown Bear will explain the Job Performance part of the National Margin.

As an example let's take the Time & Newsweek polls that were released last weekend. Time reported Bush 51% Kerry 46%, while Newsweek reported Bush 48% Kerry 46%. The first thing the Brown Bear does is calculate the poll margin for each poll: Time +5%, Newsweek +2%. (A Kerry lead would be a negative number.)

The next thing the Brown Bear looks for is the days the polls were taken. The Time poll was conducted from Oct. 19 - 21, while the Newsweek poll was conducted from Oct. 21 - 22. The Brown Bear then determines the midpoint of the range of dates for each poll: Time, Oct. 20, Newsweek Oct. 21 & a half. The Brown Bear then calculates the Age of the poll simply by counting the number of days from the end of August to the polls midpoint: Time 50, Newsweek 51.5. Note that more recent polls have higher ages and older polls have lower ages.

The Brown Bear then calculates the weight to assign each poll from the age of the poll. The Brown Bear takes the quantity, the seventh root of two (approximately 1.1), and raises it to the power of the poll's age. The weight of the Time poll is 141.323 and the weight of the Newsweek poll is 163.953. Note that the more recent poll, Newsweek, has the heavier weight.

The Brown Bear then multiplies the poll margin by the poll weight and adds them. For Time & Newsweek, the sum is 10.35. The Brown Bear then adds the poll weights. For Time & Newsweek this sum is 305.276. The Brown Bear then divides the sum of the poll weights into the previous sum to get the National Poll Margin. Just considering Time & Newsweek, this margin is 3.39%. Note that a straight average of the two polls would be 3.5%. This average is lower because the Newsweek poll is more recent and thus weighted more heavily.

Part Two of this description will describe how the Brown Bear uses President Bush's Job Performance rating in combination with this one to obtain the National Margin.

The Brown Bear & State Polls

The Brown Bear holds state polls to a much less stringent standard than national polls.

1. Polls may be partisan.

2. The midpoint of the date range of any poll must be Sept. 1 or later.

3. More than one poll from a polling company may be used.

4. It must not be an internet-based or online poll.

5. If it is a tracking poll then two iterations will be used. Most tracking polls use rolling three day averages. In that case the Brown Bear combines results to obtain a rolling six day average. For a tracking poll with a rolling four day average, the Brown Bear uses a rolling eight day average. If the information necessary to make this calculation is not available, the available information is used.

6. If a poll uses both a Bush vs. Kerry question and a Bush vs. Kerry vs. Nader question, the three or more option result will be used.

7. Presidential Job Performance polls are not used.

8. Only the seven most recent polls in each state are used.

The Brown Bear's Polls

Where does the Brown Bear get his polls?

The Brown Bear gets his polls from RealClear Politics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com).

What polls does the Brown Bear use?

To Calculate the National Margin, a national poll must meet the following criteria.

1. It must be independent, nonpartisan (that is not affiliated with any political party).

2. It must be recent. The midpoint of the dates the poll was taken must be no later than two weeks before the current date. (Most polls are taken over a range of three or four days.)

3. It must be the most recent poll from its polling company. No more than one poll from any polling company will be used.

4. It must not be an internet-based or online poll.

5. If it is a tracking poll then two iterations will be used. Most tracking polls use rolling three day averages. In that case the Brown Bear combines results to obtain a rolling six day average. For a tracking poll with a rolling four day average, the Brown Bear uses a rolling eight day average.

6. If a poll uses both a Bush vs. Kerry question and a Bush vs. Kerry vs. Nader question, the three or more option result will be used.

7. For a poll result on President Bush's Job performance, the Brown Bear does not use a poll which evaluates a response of "fair" negatively (e.g. Zogby).

The next post will detail the Brown Bear's process for selecting state polls.

The Brown Bear Bares All!

In this and subsequent posts, the Brown Bear will reveal exactly how he apportions the electoral vote to each candidate. He will start with a brief description of the process.

1. The Brown Bear takes recent national poll results, both the "who would you vote for" result and President Bush's Job Approval, and calculates a National Margin (currently Bush +2.76%). By assigning third party candidates 1.8% of the vote, the Brown Bear calculates the percentages for President Bush and Senator Kerry that appear on each morning update.

2. The Brown Bear examines the previous four presidential elections (1988, 1992, 1996, and 2000) and calculates the Degree of Partisanship of each of the fifty states. The Degree of Partisanship of a state is the number of percentage points the margin of victory (or defeat) in that state exceeds the national average. (The Brown Bear ignores the District of Columbia and arbitrarily assigns its 3 electoral votes to John Kerry.) The Brown Bear adds the Degree of Partisanship for each state to the National Margin, calculated in step 1. The Brown Bear has now calculated a preliminary result for each state.

3. The Brown Bear takes recent poll results in each state and calculates a state margin for each state. The Brown Bear combines this result with the similar result calculated in step 2 to calculate a final State Margin. If the State Margin is greater than 10% points, the Brown Bear designates that state Solid. If the State Margin is less than 10% points, yet greater than 5% points, the Brown Bear designates that state Likely. If the State Margin is less than 5% points, yet greater than 2% points, the Brown Bear designates that state Close. If the State Margin is less than 2% points, the Brown Bear designates that state a Tossup.

This is how the Brown Bear calculates the electoral votes for each candidate. Following this post will be other posts explaining the process in detail.

Morning Update!

The current results from the Brown Bear are:

President Bush 50.48%

Senator Kerry 47.72%

This is a not quite significant change in President Bush's direction.

The Brown Bear puts the electoral vote count at:

President Bush 266

Senator Kerry 228

Tossup 44

After processing more than 20 new state polls, The Brown Bear saw one major move yesterday.

Wisconsin Close Bush to Tossup (B)

The Brown Bear also saw four minor moves yesterday.

Maryland Likely Kerry to Solid Kerry

New Jersey Likely Kerry to Close Kerry

Missouri Likely Bush to Close Bush

North Carolina Solid Bush to Likely Bush

Including Tossups, President Bush still leads Senator Kerry 296 to 242.

Bush Loses Wisconsin!

Thanks to a new state poll showing Senator Kerry leading by 4% points, the Brown Bear redesignates Wisconsin Tossup (B).

Morning Update

The current results from the Brown Bear are:

President Bush 50.43%

Senator Kerry 47.77%

This is an insignificant change in Senator Kerry's direction.

The Brown Bear puts the electoral vote count at:

President Bush 276

Senator Kerry 228

Tossup 34

After processing a dozen new state polls, The Brown Bear saw only two minor moves yesterday.


<>Missouri Close Bush to Likely Bush

North Carolina Likely Bush to Solid Bush

Including Tossups, George Bush still leads Senator Kerry 296 to 242 electoral votes.

Kerry's Tasks

When Senator Kerry wrapped up his party's nomination in March, the Brown Bear saw that he was faced with two tasks.

First he needed to lock in the states that Al Gore carried in 2000 (the blue states). This would give the Senator 260 electoral votes.

Second he needed to gain states worth 10 electoral votes from those that George Bush carried in 2000 (the red states).

With one week to go before election day, the Brown Bear sees that Senator Kerry has accomplished neither task. Blue states Iowa, New Mexico, & Wisconsin are currently designated Close Bush, while Minnesota is Tossup (K). Senator Kerry has not secured a single red state. The closest he has come is New Hampshire (and its 4 e.v.) which is currently designated Tossup (K).

Can Senator Kerry accomplish these two tasks in the last week of the presidential race? The Brown Bear answers with an emphatic "Yes!". The race is not over; it is very close; and Senator Kerry still has a lot of work to do.

Weekly Update!

The Brown Bear has now been publishing his view of the presidential race for one week! Compared with one week ago there has been little change in the overall numbers.

One week ago the Brown Bear saw George Bush with 274 electoral votes. (That is George Bush led in states worth 274 electoral votes.) Today, the Brown Bear sees George Bush with 276 electoral votes.

One week ago the Brown Bear saw John Kerry with 210 electoral votes. Today, the Brown Bear sees him with 228 electoral votes.

One week ago the Brown Bear saw George Bush leading by 3.36% points. Today, the Brown Bear sees him leading by 2.8% points.

Over the course of the week, the Brown Bear saw George Bush lose Ohio and gain Iowa, New Mexico, & Wisconsin. the Brown Bear saw John Kerry lose Minnesota and gain Oregon & Pennsylvania. (Though the Brown Bear sees the designations of Ohio & Pennsylvania as quite tenuous.)

Morning Update

The current results from the Brown Bear are:

President Bush 50.50%

Senator Kerry 47.70%

This is a not quite significant change in Senator Kerry's direction.

The Brown Bear puts the electoral vote count at:

President Bush 276

Senator Kerry 228

Tossup 34

After processing a half dozen new state polls, The Brown Bear saw one major move yesterday.

<>Ohio Close Bush to Tossup (B)

The Brown Bear also saw one minor move yesterday.

New Hampshire Tossup (B) to Tossup (K)

Including Tossups, President Bush now leads Senator Kerry 296 to 242.

Bush Loses Ohio!

The Brown Bear has seen a couple of new polls for Ohio showing the race with a very narrow lead for President Bush. This leads the Brown Bear to redesignate Ohio, Tossup (B). The Brown Bear is irritated that Ohio is now showing the same predilection for movement as its neighbor, Pennsylvania.

Kerry Leads In Two Tracking Polls!!

For the first time this month the Brown Bear sees Senator Kerry leading in two tracking polls, Rasmussen & Washington Post. The leads are small, 2% and 1% respectively, but they do indicate movement in Senator Kerry's direction.

The Brown Bear knows that tracking polls tend to oscillate, and so he will not be surprised if President Bush regains the lead in both polls before the end of the week. The real question is how far the polls will go toward Senator Kerry when they move towards him again over this coming weekend. To restate the question, will the polls continue to show movement towards Senator Kerry or is this his high point.

All things considered (to quote NPR), the Brown Bear believes this is good news for Senator Kerry, but Senator Kerry needs more of the same.

Morning Update

The current results from the Brown Bear are:

President Bush 50.63%

Senator Kerry 47.57%

This is a not quite significant change from yesterday. The last two days have seen tiny moves in President Bush's direction.

The Brown Bear puts the electoral vote count at:

President Bush 296

Senator Kerry 228

Tossup 14

After processing more than ten new state polls, The Brown Bear saw four major moves yesterday.

Pennsylvania Tossup (K) to Close Kerry

New Mexico Tossup (B) to Close Bush

Ohio Tossup (B) to Close Bush

Wisconsin Tossup (B) to Close Bush

The Brown Bear also saw two minor moves yesterday.

Maine Close Kerry to Likely Kerry

North Carolina Solid Bush to Likely Bush

Including Tossups, President Bush continues to lead Senator Kerry 300 to 238

Bush Gains New Mexico, Ohio, & Wisconsin!!!

The Brown Bear saw new state polls giving President Bush the advantage in New Mexico, Ohio, and Wisconsin and redesignated those states Close Bush. This change gives President Bush 296 electoral votes, enough to win the election if he can hold these states for the next nine days.

Kerry Gains Pennsylvania Again . . .

The Brown Bear observed two new polls showing Senator Kerry ahead by 2% and 3% points and has moved Pennsylvania back to Close Kerry. The Brown Bear hopes Pennsylvania will stay put for a while.

Afternoon Update

The current results from the Brown Bear are:

President Bush 50.46%

Senator Kerry 47.74%

This is an insignificant change from yesterday.

The Brown Bear puts the electoral vote count at:

President Bush 261

Senator Kerry 207

Tossup 70

The Brown Bear saw one minor move yesterday.

Louisiana Solid Bush to Likely Bush

With tossups included, George Bush leads John Kerry 300 to 238.

Time & Newsweek Disagree

The Brown Bear saw a funny pattern in the polls released by Time & Newsweek a week ago and yesterday. A week ago Time showed George Bush with a small 1% point lead over John Kerry, while Newsweek showed the President with a 6% point lead. Yesterday's polls were almost reversed. Time showed President Bush with a 5% point lead, while Newsweek showed Senator Kerry trailing by only 2% points. During the week Time showed President Bush gaining 4% points, while Newsweek showed Senator Kerry gaining 4% points.

If you averaged the two polls, there was no change during the week. President Bush led by 3.5% points a week ago and leads by 3.5% points today.

This leads The Brown Bear to restate an old cliche:

Polling is more of an art than a Science!

Afternoon Update

The current results from the Brown Bear are:


President Bush 50.56%

Senator Kerry 47.64%

This is an insignificant change from yesterday. After three days of tiny moves in Senator Kerry's direction, we now have a tiny move in President Bush's direction.


The Brown Bear puts the electoral vote count at:

President Bush 261

Senator Kerry 207

Tossup 70

The Brown Bear saw one minor move yesterday.

Hawaii Solid Kerry to Likely Kerry

With tossups included, George Bush leads John Kerry 300 to 238.

Morning Update

The current results from the Brown Bear are:

President Bush 50.33%

Senator Kerry 47.87%

This is a not quite significant change from yesterday. The last three days have seen tiny moves in Senator Kerry's direction.

The Brown Bear puts the electoral vote count at:

President Bush 261

Senator Kerry 207

Tossup 70

With fifteen new statepolls to process, The Brown Bear saw three major moves yesterday.

Minnesota Close Kerry to Tossup (K)

Pennsylvania Close Kerry to Tossup (K)

Iowa Tossup (B) to Close Bush

The Brown Bear discovered an error in his formula and as a result makes the following redesignation.

Delaware Close Kerry to Likely Kerry

Bush Gains Iowa!

The Brown Bear sees two new state polls released. Each shows George Bush with a 6% point lead in Iowa. The Brown Bear moves Iowa to Close Bush.

Kerry By Three In New Poll!

A new AP/IPSOS poll shows Senator Kerry leading President Bush, 49% to 46%. This is the first independent national poll to show Senator Kerry in the lead since a Gallup poll ten days ago.

Since September 1st, Senator Kerry has led President Bush in only Five of the Sixty-Six polls conducted during that time.

Kerry Loses Minnesota & Pennsylvania

A new state poll showing President Bush with a 2% point lead in Minnesota causes the Brown Bear to designate that state a Tossup (K).

The Brown Bear sees Pennsylvania flop again, this time back to Tossup (K). Today's catalyst was a new state poll showing Senator Kerry with only 1% point lead.

Morning Update

The current results from the Brown Bear are:

President Bush 50.55%

Senator Kerry 47.65%

This is an insignificant change from yesterday.

The Brown Bear puts the electoral vote count at:

President Bush 254

Senator Kerry 238

Tossup 46

The Brown Bear sees New Hampshire move to Tossup (B). With Tossups included, George Bush now leads John Kerry 300 to 238.

The Brown Bear saw one major move yesterday.

Pennsylvania from Tossup (K) to Close Kerry

The Brown Bear saw three minor moves yesterday.

New Hampshire from Tossup (K) to Tossup (B)

Missouri from Likely Bush to Close Bush

Tennessee from Likely Bush to Solid Bush

Two states moved toward George Bush; one state moved to John Kerry.

Kerry Regains Pennsylvania . . .

A new Pew Research Poll showing Senator Kerry and President Bush tied nationally and President Bush's Job Approval rating at 44% moved Pennsylvania enough for the Brown Bear to redesignate Pennsylvania Close Kerry. This could change . . . .

More than fifteen new state polls were released yesterday prompting the Brown Bear to make the following minor redesignations.

New Hampshire from Tossup (K) to Tossup (B)

Missouri from Likely Bush to Close Bush

Tennessee from Likely Bush to Solid Bush

Morning Update

The current results from the Brown Bear are:

President Bush 50.75%

Senator Kerry 47.45%

This is an insignificant change from yesterday.

The Brown Bear puts the electoral vote count at:

President Bush 254

Senator Kerry 217

Tossup 67

With tossups included, The Brown Bear sees no change. George Bush leads John Kerry 296 to 242.

The Brown Bear saw two major moves yesterday.

Oregon: Tossup (K) to Kerry Close

Ohio: Bush Close to Tossup (B)

The Brown Bear saw Pennsylvania move to Kerry and back and thinks he spoke too soon.

The Brown Bear saw some minor movement yesterday.

Washington Kerry Close to Kerry Likely

Missouri Bush Close to Bush Likely

Tennessee Bush Solid to Bush Likely

Virginia Bush Solid to Bush Likely

Louisiana Bush Likely to Bush Solid

Three states moved in Kerry's direction; Two states moved in Bush's direction.

The Brown Bear

I have decided to name my electoral vote model "The Brown Bear". It is not a particularly original designation, but it will serve. Whenever the Brown Bear speaks it declares the results of my electoral vote model or parts of it (e. g. "According to the Brown Bear, state polling in Ohio shows Bush with a slim 0.77% lead.").

Bush Loses Ohio! Kerry Loses Pennsylvania!

Due to new state and national polls, Ohio becomes a tossup state and Pennsylvania returns to the tossup designation. The electoral vote model now shows the President leading Senator Kerry 254 to 217.

Oregon & Pennsylvania to Kerry!

Thanks to new state polls each showing Senator Kerry leading by 6% (percentage points), the designations of Oregon and Pennsylvania change from Tossup to Close Kerry. President Bush's lead over Senator Kerry is now 274 to 238.

Tossup States

The following states have a predicted margin of victory of less than 2%. These states are too close to call. They are leaning to the following candidates.

John Kerry

New Hampshire, Oregon, and Pennsylvania

George Bush

Iowa, New Mexico, and Wisconsin

John Kerry has leads in three tossup states with 32 electoral votes.
George Bush has leads in three tossup states with 22 electoral votes.

Including tossup states, President Bush leads Senator Kerry 296 to 242.

Close States

In the following states the predicted margin of victory is less than 5% but greater than 2%. These states could go either way, but one candidate is definitely leading.

John Kerry

Delaware, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, and Washington

George Bush

Arkansas, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and West Virginia

John Kerry has a close lead in five states with 45 electoral votes.
George Bush has a close lead in five states with 69 electoral votes.

Likely States

The following states have a predicted margin of victory of less than 10% and greater than 5%. They should be considered likely to vote for their candidate.

John Kerry

California, Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, and Vermont

George Bush

Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, and Nevada


Senator Kerry has 111 likely electoral votes.
President Bush has 33 likely electoral votes.

Considering both likely and solid electoral votes, President Bush leads 205 to 165.

Notes: The presence of Nevada on this list is a bit surprising. President Bush's support of the Yucca Mountain Nuclear Waste Repository was unpopular in Nevada and was thought to make this state competitive for Senator Kerry. Recent State Polls have, however, consistently shown a lead for President Bush. This combined with President's narrow lead in the national polls, have designated Republican leaning Nevada a Likely Bush state.

The presence of New Jersey on this list is not surprising. An occasional state poll which shows the race to be more competitive (e. g. FDU: B 46; K 46 on Oct. 15) is clearly an outlier. It will take more than one poll to change New Jersey's designation.

Solid States

The following states have a margin of victory greater than 10% and should be considered certain to vote for their respective candidate.

John Kerry

Hawaii
Massachusetts
New York
Rhode Island
District of Columbia

George Bush

Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Virginia, and Wyoming

Senator Kerry has 54 solid electoral votes.
President Bush has 172 solid electoral votes.

Bush Leads!

The current results of the election model are:

President Bush 50.78%

Senator Kerry 47.42%

The electoral vote count currently stands at:

President Bush 274

Senator Kerry 210

Tossup 54

As it stands now, President Bush has enough electoral votes to win without capturing any tossup states. However, a recent poll showing Senator Kerry with a one point lead in Florida shows how close this race is. Even with this poll, Bush leads Florida by 2.95% (percentage points). The margin must be less than 2% for a state to be considered a tossup.

Welcome to The Brown Bear!

For the next couple of weeks, I will be presenting a model for predicting the electoral vote. This model uses three sets of data: Historical voting patterns for each state, National Polls, and State Polls. I use Real Clear Politics (http://www.realclearpolitics.com) to obtain national and state polling data. The model should be stable with few changes day to day. We'll see!