Likely States

The following states have a predicted margin of victory of less than 10% and greater than 5%. They should be considered likely to vote for their candidate.

John Kerry

California, Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, New Jersey, and Vermont

George Bush

Arizona, Colorado, Louisiana, and Nevada


Senator Kerry has 111 likely electoral votes.
President Bush has 33 likely electoral votes.

Considering both likely and solid electoral votes, President Bush leads 205 to 165.

Notes: The presence of Nevada on this list is a bit surprising. President Bush's support of the Yucca Mountain Nuclear Waste Repository was unpopular in Nevada and was thought to make this state competitive for Senator Kerry. Recent State Polls have, however, consistently shown a lead for President Bush. This combined with President's narrow lead in the national polls, have designated Republican leaning Nevada a Likely Bush state.

The presence of New Jersey on this list is not surprising. An occasional state poll which shows the race to be more competitive (e. g. FDU: B 46; K 46 on Oct. 15) is clearly an outlier. It will take more than one poll to change New Jersey's designation.