The Brown Bear

The Brown Bear presents a model of the electoral vote using state polls, national polls, and historical voting patterns.

Sunday, October 24, 2004

Time & Newsweek Disagree

The Brown Bear saw a funny pattern in the polls released by Time & Newsweek a week ago and yesterday. A week ago Time showed George Bush with a small 1% point lead over John Kerry, while Newsweek showed the President with a 6% point lead. Yesterday's polls were almost reversed. Time showed President Bush with a 5% point lead, while Newsweek showed Senator Kerry trailing by only 2% points. During the week Time showed President Bush gaining 4% points, while Newsweek showed Senator Kerry gaining 4% points.

If you averaged the two polls, there was no change during the week. President Bush led by 3.5% points a week ago and leads by 3.5% points today.

This leads The Brown Bear to restate an old cliche:

Polling is more of an art than a Science!

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