An Evaluation of the Brown Bear

So, how did the Brown Bear do predicting the election? Well, the returns are not complete, but with more than 99% of precincts reporting nationwide, we can make some preliminary judgments.

1. Did the Brown Bear predict the winner?

Yes!! In his election morning update, the Brown Bear predicted a victory for George Bush.

2. Did the Brown Bear predict the margin of victory?

The Brown Bear came very close. His prediction was 3.02%; the actual result was 3.07%.

The error was E = (3.07 – 3.02) ÷ 3.07 = 1.64%

3. How close did the Brown Bear come to each candidate's national percentage?

Again, the Brown Bear came close. He predicted Bush 50.61%; Kerry 47.59%. The actual result was Bush 51.08%; Kerry 48.00%

For Bush the error was E = (51.08 – 50.61) ÷ 51.08 = 0.91%

For Kerry the error was E = (48 – 47.59) ÷ 48 = 0.86%

4. How close did the Brown Bear come to each candidate's electoral vote count?

The Brown Bear did not do as well here. Tossup meant the Brown Bear didn't know who was leading and his predictions bore that out. He predicted Bush 300 Kerry 238. The result was actually Bush 286 Kerry 252.

For Bush the error was E = (300 – 286) ÷ 286 = 4.90%

For Kerry the error was E = (252 – 238) ÷ 252 = 5.56%

5. Did the Brown Bear pick many states incorrectly?

No, the Brown Bear picked 48 states and the District of Columbia correctly.

E = (51-49) ÷ 51 = 3.92%

In addition, the only states the Brown Bear picked incorrectly were ones he had labeled Tossup. Every state the Brown Bear designated Close, Likely, and Solid voted for the candidate the Brown Bear predicted they would.

On the whole, the Brown Bear did very well in this election!