The Brown Bear

The Brown Bear presents a model of the electoral vote using state polls, national polls, and historical voting patterns.

Thursday, October 28, 2004

Morning Update!

The current results from the Brown Bear are:

President Bush 50.48%

Senator Kerry 47.72%

This is a not quite significant change in President Bush's direction.


The Brown Bear puts the electoral vote count at:

President Bush 266

Senator Kerry 228

Tossup 44

After processing more than 20 new state polls, The Brown Bear saw one major move yesterday.

Wisconsin Close Bush to Tossup (B)



The Brown Bear also saw four minor moves yesterday.

Maryland Likely Kerry to Solid Kerry

New Jersey Likely Kerry to Close Kerry

Missouri Likely Bush to Close Bush

North Carolina Solid Bush to Likely Bush



Including Tossups, President Bush still leads Senator Kerry 296 to 242.

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