An Evaluation of the Brown Bear

So, how did the Brown Bear do predicting the election? Well, the returns are not complete, but with more than 99% of precincts reporting nationwide, we can make some preliminary judgments.

1. Did the Brown Bear predict the winner?

Yes!! In his election morning update, the Brown Bear predicted a victory for George Bush.

2. Did the Brown Bear predict the margin of victory?

The Brown Bear came very close. His prediction was 3.02%; the actual result was 3.07%.

The error was E = (3.07 – 3.02) ÷ 3.07 = 1.64%

3. How close did the Brown Bear come to each candidate's national percentage?

Again, the Brown Bear came close. He predicted Bush 50.61%; Kerry 47.59%. The actual result was Bush 51.08%; Kerry 48.00%

For Bush the error was E = (51.08 – 50.61) ÷ 51.08 = 0.91%

For Kerry the error was E = (48 – 47.59) ÷ 48 = 0.86%

4. How close did the Brown Bear come to each candidate's electoral vote count?

The Brown Bear did not do as well here. Tossup meant the Brown Bear didn't know who was leading and his predictions bore that out. He predicted Bush 300 Kerry 238. The result was actually Bush 286 Kerry 252.

For Bush the error was E = (300 – 286) ÷ 286 = 4.90%

For Kerry the error was E = (252 – 238) ÷ 252 = 5.56%

5. Did the Brown Bear pick many states incorrectly?

No, the Brown Bear picked 48 states and the District of Columbia correctly.

E = (51-49) ÷ 51 = 3.92%

In addition, the only states the Brown Bear picked incorrectly were ones he had labeled Tossup. Every state the Brown Bear designated Close, Likely, and Solid voted for the candidate the Brown Bear predicted they would.

On the whole, the Brown Bear did very well in this election!

The Brown Bear's Prediction!

As you can see from this Morning's Update, the Brown Bear is predicting a victory for President Bush. The Brown Bear sees the President with a Close or better lead in states worth 279 e.v.

The Brown Bear wishes to qualify that with a few of caveats.

1. The Brown Bear relies heavily on publicly reported polls to calculate his prediction. If the polls are in error because turnout is too heavy, too light, or skewed (e.g. African-Americans vote in record numbers, or young people voting in record numbers), the polls and thus the Brown Bear will be wrong.

2. The most recent polls were conducted over the weekend. If there was a change in the mood of the electorate on Monday, the polls and thus the Brown Bear would not have caught it.

3. The race is very close. Fifteen states are rated either Close or Tossup. Close means the election could go either way, but the Brown Bear is confidant that one candidate has a small lead. Tossup means the Brown Bear is not confident he knows who is leading the race (though if pressed, he will assign a state to one of the candidates).

For his final prediction, the Brown Bear processed seventeen national polls and 272 state polls. One bad poll will not make a dent in his prediction. One biased pollster will not skew his prediction. The Brown Bear assigned Florida to Close Bush because the President leads nationally, Florida's degree of partisanship is slightly Republican, and George Bush leads in five of the seven most recent polls. Similarly, Ohio has slight Republican degree of partisanship, the President leads nationally, and six of the seven most recent state polls show George Bush ahead in the state. Thus the Brown Bear designates Ohio Close Bush. In contrast, Minnesota leans Democratic in its degree of partisanship and of the seven most recent polls, three showed John Kerry leading, three showed George Bush leading and the seventh poll had it tied. Thus the Brown Bear designated the state Tossup (K).

The Brown Bear believes he reflects the consensus of the polls. If the polls are an accurate reflection of the vote today, George Bush will win reelection. If not, all bets are off.

Election Night Viewing Guide

Part One --- The Northeast

For electoral vote counting, the Northeast is the region north of the Potomac River and east of Ohio. It contains eleven states and the District of Columbia, with a total value of 117 electoral votes (e.v.).

This region is the heart of John Kerry's support. He expects to sweep this region and losses here would be fatal to his election hopes.

Critical State: Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania's 21 e.v. make this a critical state for John Kerry. He leads this state by only 0.72% according the Brown Bear's latest calculation.

Other States to Watch: New Hampshire & Maine

Republican leaning New Hampshire voted for George Bush in 2000, but state polls have consistently shown John Kerry leading by very little. The last state poll had showed George Bush leading by a point. A strong showing by George Bush may indicate weakness overall for John Kerry.

Maine is Likely Kerry, but there is a small possibility that George Bush can pick up an electoral vote by winning Maine's 2^nd Congressional District. Keep an eye on that possibility.

Part Two --- The South

For electoral vote counting, the South is the region south of the Ohio & Potomac rivers and east of Texas. It contains twelve states with a total value of 132 e.v.

In 2000, George Bush swept the South and he needs to do so again this year.

Critical State: Florida

The Brown Bear currently rates Florida Close Bush. Of the seven most recent polls, five have George Bush leading, two have John Kerry leading. A victory by John Kerry will go a long way towards clinching the Presidency for him.

Other States to Watch: Arkansas & West Virginia

These traditionally Democratic states have trended Republican but not as much as the rest of the South. An upset by John Kerry in either of these states would be a very bad sign for George Bush.

Part Three --- The Midwest

For electoral vote counting, the Midwest is the region west of Pennsylvania, north of the Ohio River and east of the Red River. It includes the state of Missouri. It contains eight states with a total value of 107 e.v.

In the 2000 Presidential election, Gore won five states and Bush won three, making this the Battleground region. If John Kerry doesn't win Florida, he will need to do win more states here.

Critical State: Ohio

A week ago, state polls showed the race in Ohio a pure tossup and John Kerry had the momentum. But during the last week of the Presidential race, the state moved slightly to George Bush. Six of the last Seven state polls showed the President leading the race. Victories by George Bush here and in Florida would seal his reelection.

Other States to Watch: Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin

These four states all went to Gore in 2000. All are rated Tossup by the Brown Bear. If George Bush loses either Florida or Ohio he will need to carry some of these states to make the difference.

Part Four --- The Mountain West

For electoral vote counting, the Mountain West is the region west of the South & Midwest, east of the Pacific coast states, plus it includes the state of Alaska. It contains fifteen staes with a total value of 105 e.v.

This is George Bush's home region, the base of his support and he should sweep the region.

Critical State: New Mexico

Al Gore won this state in 2000 by fewer than 400 votes. State polls have consistently shown George Bush with a three to five point lead. A victory for him here would offset the expected loss of New Hampshire.

Other States to Watch: Nevada & Colorado

George Bush won both of these states in 2000 and should win them again this year. Both states have voted for Clinton and a victory by John Kerry would not be a shock.

Part Five --- The Pacific

For electoral vote counting, the Pacific are the states bordering the Pacific Ocean minus Alaska (it is part of the Mountain West). The region contains four states with a total value of 77 e.v.

The Pacific is not called the “Left Coast” for nothing. Al Gore swept this region in 2000 and Bill Clinton swept the region in 1992 & 1996. John Kerry should sweep this region and a failure to do so will be an indication that he has already lost.

Critical State: Hawaii

This reliably Democratic state showed George Bush leading by a point in two mid-October polls. There have been no state polls since, so this state is solidly in the realms of the unknown. The Brown Bear predicts that if George Bush needs to carry Hawaii, he won't.

Other State to Watch: Oregon

In 2000, Oregon was a very close victory for Al Gore. State polls show a much more comfortable lead for John Kerry, but an upset victory for George Bush is not unthinkable.

The Brown Bear's bottom line is that this election will be decided in the Midwest. At the absolute minimum, George Bush needs 32 e.v. from the region. If he loses Florida he will need 60 e.v. Both tasks are doable and puncture the myth that George Bush needs to carry both Ohio and Florida to win the election.

Election Morning Update!

On the morning of election day The current results from the Brown Bear are:

President Bush 50.61%

Senator Kerry 47.59%

This is a not quite significant change in Senator Kerry's direction.

The Brown Bear puts the electoral vote count at:

President Bush 279

Senator Kerry 190

Tossup 69

After processing more than 20 new state polls, the Brown Bear saw two major moves yesterday.

Michigan Close Kerry to Tossup (K)

Ohio Tossup (B) to Close Bush

The Brown Bear also saw three minor moves yesterday.

New Hampshire Tossup (K) to Tossup (B)

New Jersey Likely Kerry to Close Kerry

Missouri Likely Bush to Close Bush

Including Tossups, President Bush now leads Senator Kerry 300 to 238.

Bush Gains Ohio!

Thanks to new state polls showing George Bush with a small lead in Ohio, the Brown Bear redesignates Ohio, Cl0se Bush.

Kerry Loses Michigan!

Thanks to a couple of new state polls showing Senator Kerry with a narrow lead, the Brown Bear redesignates Michigan Tossup (K).

The Brown Bear and State Polls

In this post, the Brown Bear will describe how he calculates an average of state polls and how he combines the state poll margin with each state's Degree of Partisanship to determine a final state margin.

As an example, we will use the state of Iowa. The Brown Bear first examines the range of dates a poll was conducted and calculates its Age and Weight (in the same manner as the Brown Bear used in calculating the National Margin). The Brown Bear then for each state chooses the seven polls with the heaviest weights. The Brown Bear then calculates the margin for each poll by subtracting the Republican percentage from the Democratic percentage. The Brown Bear then multiplies each poll's margin by each poll's weight to obtain each poll's weighted margin. The Brown Bear then adds the seven weighted margins of each state and divides the resultant sum by the sum of the weights to obtain the State Poll Margin for each state.

The following chart shows this calculation for the state of Iowa. Remember that a positive margin is a Kerry lead, a negative margin is a Bush lead. In the chart, A is Age, W is Weight, WM is Weighted Margin, P is Pollster, M is Margin.

P A M W WM

SV 56 -3% x 256.00 = -7.68

DM 57 3% x 282.65 = 8.48

Z 57.5 3% x 296.99 = 8.91

MD 58 -5% x 312.07 = -15.60

G 58.5 0% x 327.91 = -6.56

SU 59 -2% x 344.55 = 0.00

F 60.5 -4% x 399.72 = -15.99

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2,219.89 -28.44

State Poll Margin is -28.44 ÷ 2,219.89 = -1.28%

Thus the Brown Bear would conclude that President Bush is leading Senator Kerry in Iowa according to the state polls. For Iowa, the pollsters are, Des Moines Register, Fox News, Gallup, Mason-Dixon, Survey USA, Strategic Vision, and Zogby.

To combine the state poll margin with the historical margin calculated in the previous post, The Brown Bear and Historical Data, the Brown Bear assigns the historical margin an age equivalent to the present date (as if the poll were conducted entirely today). The Brown Bear then calculates the weight for the historical margin in the usual manner (as detailed in the post, The Brown Bear and the National Margin (Part One). The Brown Bear then multiplies the historical margin by the weight assigned to it to obtain a weighted historical margin. For our example of Iowa, the historical margin was -1.54%; today's date is November 1, which yields an Age of 62 and a corresponding Weight of 463.73. Iowa's weighted historical margin then is -1.54% x 463.73 = -7.14. The Brown Bear then adds the weighted historical margin to the sum of the weighted margins obtained from the state polls. For Iowa, this is -28.44 + (-7.14) = -35.58. The Brown Bear then adds the weight assigned the historical margin to the sum of the weights of the state polls. For Iowa this is 463.73 + 2,219.89 = 2,683.62. To obtain the State Margin, the Brown Bear divides the previous sum by the sum of the weights. For Iowa in our example the State Margin is -35.58 ÷ 2,683.62 = -1.33%. Based on these results, the Brown Bear would designate Iowa Tossup (B) (since George Bush's margin is less than 2% points).

This is how the Brown Bear calculates the leader of the presidential race in each of the fifty states.

Morning Update!

The current results from the Brown Bear are:

President Bush 50.73%

Senator Kerry 47.47%

This is an insignificant change in Senator Kerry's direction.

The Brown Bear puts the electoral vote count at:

President Bush 259

Senator Kerry 207

Tossup 72

After processing more than a twenty new state polls and four new national polls, The Brown Bear saw no major moves yesterday and only three minor moves.

Delaware Close Kerry to Likely Kerry

Maine Close Kerry to Likely Kerry

Nevada Close Bush to Likely Bush

Including Tossups, President Bush still leads Senator Kerry 296 to 242.

The Brown Bear and Historical Data

In this post, the Brown Bear will describe how he uses data from the past four presidential elections to calculate each state's Degree of Partisanship and then combines this with the National Margin to determine a preliminary winner of the presidential race in each of the fifty states.

As an example we will consider the state of Iowa. First the Brown Bear determines the percentages received by the Democrat and the Republican for each of the past four presidential elections. In 1988, Bush defeated Dukakis 53.92% to 46.08%. 1992, Clinton defeated Bush 43.28% to 37.69%. In 1996, Clinton defeated Dole 49.94% to 41.44%. In 2000, Gore had more votes (but lost in the electoral college) 48.88% to 48.36%. Then the Brown Bear determines the percentages received by the Republican and the Democrat in each state for each of the last four presidential elections. For Iowa those results are:

1988: D 55.19% -- R 44.81%; 1992: D 43.60% -- R 37.55%;

1996: D 50.84% -- R 40.54%; 2000: D 49.03% -- R 48.71%.

<> Then the Brown Bear subtracts the National result from the state result for each party for each state for each election. For Iowa these results are:

1988: D 55.19% - 46.08% = 9.11% R 44.81% - 53.92% = -9.11%

1992: D 43.60% - 43.28% = 0.32% R 37.55% - 37.69% = -0.14%
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1996: D 50.84% - 49.94% = 0.90% R 40.54% - 41.44% = -0.90%

2000: D 49.03% - 48.88% = 0.15% R 48.71% - 48.36% = 0.35%

The Brown Bear then multiplies these results by the following weights. For 1988, 2; for 1992, 3; for 1996, 6; for 2000, 12. For Iowa, these products are:

1988: D 9.11% x 2 = 18.22% R -9.11% x 2 = -18.22%

1992: D 0.32% x 3 = 0.96% R -0.14% x 3 = -0.42%

1996: D 0.90% x 6 = 5.40% R -0.90% x 6 = -5.40%

2000: D 0.15% x 12 = 1.80% R 0.35% x 12 = 4.20%

The Brown then adds these products for each party. For Iowa, these sums are:

D 18.22% + 0.96% + 5.40% + 1.80% = 26.38%

R -18.22% – 0.42% – 5.40% + 4.20% = -19.84%

The Brown Bear then divides these sums by the sum of the weights (2 + 3 + 6 + 12 = 23). For Iowa these results are: D 26.38% / 23 = 1.15% -- R -19.84% / 23 = -0.86%. The Brown Bear then subtracts the Republican Result from the Democratic result to obtain each state's Degree of Partisanship. Iowa's Degree of Partisanship is 1.15% - (-0.86%) = 2.01% (in favor of Democratic candidates).

To obtain a preliminary result for each state, the Brown Bear takes the National Margin (as calculated in The Brown Bear National Margin Parts One and Two) and adds it to each state's Degree of Partisanship (if the National Margin favors the Republican candidate, the Brown Bear makes the National Margin negative). Using the National Margin calculated in the previous posts in this series, the result for Iowa is 2.01% + (-3.55%) = -1.54%. Thus, the preliminary result for Iowa is a Republican victory, but with a margin so small, the Brown Bear would designate it Tossup (B).