The Brown Bear

The Brown Bear presents a model of the electoral vote using state polls, national polls, and historical voting patterns.

Sunday, October 31, 2004

Evening Update!

The current results from the Brown Bear are:

President Bush 50.77%

Senator Kerry 47.43%

This is a not quite significant change in President Bush's direction.

The Brown Bear puts the electoral vote count at:

President Bush 259

Senator Kerry 207

Tossup 72

After processing more than 40 new state polls, The Brown Bear saw one major move yesterday.

Iowa Close Bush to Tossup (B)

The Brown Bear also saw seven minor moves yesterday.

Delaware Likely Kerry to Close Kerry

Washington Likely Kerry to Close Kerry

Maine Likely Kerry to Close Kerry

Illinois Likely Kerry to Solid Kerry

New Jersey Close Kerry to Likely Kerry

Missouri Close Bush to Likely Bush

Nevada Likely Bush to Close Bush


Including Tossups, President Bush now leads Senator Kerry 296 to 242.

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