Tossup States
The following states have a predicted margin of victory of less than 2%. These states are too close to call. They are leaning to the following candidates.
John Kerry
New Hampshire, Oregon, and Pennsylvania
George Bush
Iowa, New Mexico, and Wisconsin
New Hampshire, Oregon, and Pennsylvania
George Bush
Iowa, New Mexico, and Wisconsin
John Kerry has leads in three tossup states with 32 electoral votes.
George Bush has leads in three tossup states with 22 electoral votes.
Including tossup states, President Bush leads Senator Kerry 296 to 242.
posted by Trinian | 1:28 PM
3 Comments:
I created a very modest weighting to the categories:
Toss up``: 0.5
Close```: 0.7
Likely``: 0.9
Solid```: 1.2
When the weights are applied, Bush changes very little:
.....Count....Index
Toss up``22```11
Close ```69```48.3
Likely```33```29.7
Solid```172``206.4
total```296``295.4
But Kerry's change is more dramatic
.....Count....Index
Toss up```32```16
Close````45```31.5
Likely```111```99.0
Solid````54```64.8
total````242``212.2
I see these weights as a measure of "firmness of support". Not just the current state of the electoral votes, but their reliability going forward.
In the above numbers, Kerry support is revealed as being softer than the raw electoral count would suggest. (The differences in the indexes between the candidates is caused by more Solid support on the Bush side, with more Likely support for Kerry.)
This deficiency is the product of two factors. Bush leads in national polls by about 3%, firming his support and weakening Kerry's, and California's 55 electoral votes, though not particularly likely to go to Bush are not likely to become Solid either.
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