The Brown Bear

The Brown Bear presents a model of the electoral vote using state polls, national polls, and historical voting patterns.

Tuesday, October 19, 2004

Oregon & Pennsylvania to Kerry!

Thanks to new state polls each showing Senator Kerry leading by 6% (percentage points), the designations of Oregon and Pennsylvania change from Tossup to Close Kerry. President Bush's lead over Senator Kerry is now 274 to 238.

1 Comments:

Blogger Arcadius said...

So the model gives 28 electoral votes to Kerry.
The total raw votes haven't changed
`Bush ``296...Kerry``242
But the index reflexts Kerry's continuing softness:
``````295.4..........217.8
an increase of just 5.6 for Kerry in the index

October 19, 2004 at 7:58 PM  

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