The Brown Bear

The Brown Bear presents a model of the electoral vote using state polls, national polls, and historical voting patterns.

Thursday, October 21, 2004

Morning Update

The current results from the Brown Bear are:

President Bush 50.55%

Senator Kerry 47.65%

This is an insignificant change from yesterday.


The Brown Bear puts the electoral vote count at:

President Bush 254

Senator Kerry 238

Tossup 46

The Brown Bear sees New Hampshire move to Tossup (B). With Tossups included, George Bush now leads John Kerry 300 to 238.

The Brown Bear saw one major move yesterday.

Pennsylvania from Tossup (K) to Close Kerry

The Brown Bear saw three minor moves yesterday.

New Hampshire from Tossup (K) to Tossup (B)

Missouri from Likely Bush to Close Bush

Tennessee from Likely Bush to Solid Bush

Two states moved toward George Bush; one state moved to John Kerry.




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