The Brown Bear

The Brown Bear presents a model of the electoral vote using state polls, national polls, and historical voting patterns.

Wednesday, October 20, 2004

Morning Update

The current results from the Brown Bear are:

President Bush 50.75%

Senator Kerry 47.45%

This is an insignificant change from yesterday.


The Brown Bear puts the electoral vote count at:

President Bush 254

Senator Kerry 217

Tossup 67

With tossups included, The Brown Bear sees no change. George Bush leads John Kerry 296 to 242.

The Brown Bear saw two major moves yesterday.

Oregon: Tossup (K) to Kerry Close

Ohio: Bush Close to Tossup (B)

The Brown Bear saw Pennsylvania move to Kerry and back and thinks he spoke too soon.



The Brown Bear saw some minor movement yesterday.

Washington Kerry Close to Kerry Likely

Missouri Bush Close to Bush Likely

Tennessee Bush Solid to Bush Likely

Virginia Bush Solid to Bush Likely

Louisiana Bush Likely to Bush Solid

Three states moved in Kerry's direction; Two states moved in Bush's direction.






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