The Brown Bear

The Brown Bear presents a model of the electoral vote using state polls, national polls, and historical voting patterns.

Monday, October 25, 2004

Morning Update

The current results from the Brown Bear are:

President Bush 50.63%

Senator Kerry 47.57%

This is a not quite significant change from yesterday. The last two days have seen tiny moves in President Bush's direction.


The Brown Bear puts the electoral vote count at:

President Bush 296

Senator Kerry 228

Tossup 14

After processing more than ten new state polls, The Brown Bear saw four major moves yesterday.

Pennsylvania Tossup (K) to Close Kerry

New Mexico Tossup (B) to Close Bush

Ohio Tossup (B) to Close Bush

Wisconsin Tossup (B) to Close Bush

The Brown Bear also saw two minor moves yesterday.

Maine Close Kerry to Likely Kerry

North Carolina Solid Bush to Likely Bush

Including Tossups, President Bush continues to lead Senator Kerry 300 to 238

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