The Brown Bear

The Brown Bear presents a model of the electoral vote using state polls, national polls, and historical voting patterns.

Tuesday, October 19, 2004

Close States

In the following states the predicted margin of victory is less than 5% but greater than 2%. These states could go either way, but one candidate is definitely leading.

John Kerry

Delaware, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, and Washington

George Bush

Arkansas, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and West Virginia

John Kerry has a close lead in five states with 45 electoral votes.
George Bush has a close lead in five states with 69 electoral votes.


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