The Brown Bear

The Brown Bear presents a model of the electoral vote using state polls, national polls, and historical voting patterns.

Friday, October 22, 2004

Morning Update

The current results from the Brown Bear are:

President Bush 50.33%

Senator Kerry 47.87%

This is a not quite significant change from yesterday. The last three days have seen tiny moves in Senator Kerry's direction.


The Brown Bear puts the electoral vote count at:

President Bush 261

Senator Kerry 207

Tossup 70

With fifteen new statepolls to process, The Brown Bear saw three major moves yesterday.

Minnesota Close Kerry to Tossup (K)

Pennsylvania Close Kerry to Tossup (K)

Iowa Tossup (B) to Close Bush

The Brown Bear discovered an error in his formula and as a result makes the following redesignation.

Delaware Close Kerry to Likely Kerry

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