Election Night Viewing Guide

Part One --- The Northeast

For electoral vote counting, the Northeast is the region north of the Potomac River and east of Ohio. It contains eleven states and the District of Columbia, with a total value of 117 electoral votes (e.v.).

This region is the heart of John Kerry's support. He expects to sweep this region and losses here would be fatal to his election hopes.

Critical State: Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania's 21 e.v. make this a critical state for John Kerry. He leads this state by only 0.72% according the Brown Bear's latest calculation.

Other States to Watch: New Hampshire & Maine

Republican leaning New Hampshire voted for George Bush in 2000, but state polls have consistently shown John Kerry leading by very little. The last state poll had showed George Bush leading by a point. A strong showing by George Bush may indicate weakness overall for John Kerry.

Maine is Likely Kerry, but there is a small possibility that George Bush can pick up an electoral vote by winning Maine's 2^nd Congressional District. Keep an eye on that possibility.

Part Two --- The South

For electoral vote counting, the South is the region south of the Ohio & Potomac rivers and east of Texas. It contains twelve states with a total value of 132 e.v.

In 2000, George Bush swept the South and he needs to do so again this year.

Critical State: Florida

The Brown Bear currently rates Florida Close Bush. Of the seven most recent polls, five have George Bush leading, two have John Kerry leading. A victory by John Kerry will go a long way towards clinching the Presidency for him.

Other States to Watch: Arkansas & West Virginia

These traditionally Democratic states have trended Republican but not as much as the rest of the South. An upset by John Kerry in either of these states would be a very bad sign for George Bush.

Part Three --- The Midwest

For electoral vote counting, the Midwest is the region west of Pennsylvania, north of the Ohio River and east of the Red River. It includes the state of Missouri. It contains eight states with a total value of 107 e.v.

In the 2000 Presidential election, Gore won five states and Bush won three, making this the Battleground region. If John Kerry doesn't win Florida, he will need to do win more states here.

Critical State: Ohio

A week ago, state polls showed the race in Ohio a pure tossup and John Kerry had the momentum. But during the last week of the Presidential race, the state moved slightly to George Bush. Six of the last Seven state polls showed the President leading the race. Victories by George Bush here and in Florida would seal his reelection.

Other States to Watch: Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin

These four states all went to Gore in 2000. All are rated Tossup by the Brown Bear. If George Bush loses either Florida or Ohio he will need to carry some of these states to make the difference.

Part Four --- The Mountain West

For electoral vote counting, the Mountain West is the region west of the South & Midwest, east of the Pacific coast states, plus it includes the state of Alaska. It contains fifteen staes with a total value of 105 e.v.

This is George Bush's home region, the base of his support and he should sweep the region.

Critical State: New Mexico

Al Gore won this state in 2000 by fewer than 400 votes. State polls have consistently shown George Bush with a three to five point lead. A victory for him here would offset the expected loss of New Hampshire.

Other States to Watch: Nevada & Colorado

George Bush won both of these states in 2000 and should win them again this year. Both states have voted for Clinton and a victory by John Kerry would not be a shock.

Part Five --- The Pacific

For electoral vote counting, the Pacific are the states bordering the Pacific Ocean minus Alaska (it is part of the Mountain West). The region contains four states with a total value of 77 e.v.

The Pacific is not called the “Left Coast” for nothing. Al Gore swept this region in 2000 and Bill Clinton swept the region in 1992 & 1996. John Kerry should sweep this region and a failure to do so will be an indication that he has already lost.

Critical State: Hawaii

This reliably Democratic state showed George Bush leading by a point in two mid-October polls. There have been no state polls since, so this state is solidly in the realms of the unknown. The Brown Bear predicts that if George Bush needs to carry Hawaii, he won't.

Other State to Watch: Oregon

In 2000, Oregon was a very close victory for Al Gore. State polls show a much more comfortable lead for John Kerry, but an upset victory for George Bush is not unthinkable.

The Brown Bear's bottom line is that this election will be decided in the Midwest. At the absolute minimum, George Bush needs 32 e.v. from the region. If he loses Florida he will need 60 e.v. Both tasks are doable and puncture the myth that George Bush needs to carry both Ohio and Florida to win the election.